Latest Posts

Latest Posts

ICYMI: Goldman Sachs cut US GDP forecast citing the banking crisis impact on credit growth

<p>Goldman Sachs issued the call Wednesday, US time. Outlets have picked it up.</p><p>"Small and medi…

Mar 15, 2023

Australian jobs report today: "One of the most closely watched ... in a long time"

<p>Coming up at 11.30am Sydney time, 8.30pm US Eastern time:</p><p>Snippet preview comments via:</p>…

Mar 15, 2023

Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 16 March 2023

<p>Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive tr…

Mar 15, 2023

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0691; (P) 1.0721; (R1) 1.0762; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the downside with today’s shar…

Mar 15, 2023

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2130; (P) 1.2166; (R1) 1.2196; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral first as it’s still holding…

Mar 15, 2023

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.20; (P) 134.05; (R1) 135.06; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first as it’s staying abo…

Mar 15, 2023

BOJ January meeting minutes says Board members expect Japan inflation to slow H2 FY 2023

<p>Bank of Japan January minutes,<a href="https://ift.tt/f3HEkLu" target="_blank" rel="nof…

Mar 15, 2023

SVB did not have a chief risk officer from April to December 2022 (Not the Onion)

<p>The Federal Reserve is looking into Silicon Valley Bank's lack of a chief risk officer for much of last year as…

Mar 15, 2023

Japanese Yen May Weaken if US Banking Sector Volatility Continues Calming

The Japanese Yen underperformed as US banking sector volatility cooled. Traders started pricing out aggressive Fed rate cut …

Mar 14, 2023

Pantheon still expects an ECB 50bp rate hike this week but not a foregone conclusion

<p>A research note from Pantheon Macro on what to expect from the European Central Bank later this week. </p><…

Mar 14, 2023

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 14 Mar: US CPI is not scary as trader adjust expectations

<ul><li><a href="https://ift.tt/2OVXZsT equities go for a ride. Heavy late buying saves the day</a>…

Mar 14, 2023

US equities go for a ride. Heavy late buying saves the day

<p>It was all about the regional bank stocks once again today. They soared in the pre-market but the market open turne…

Mar 14, 2023

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.02; (P) 133.53; (R1) 134.76; More… USD/JPY’s recovery from 132.27 extends higher today and with break…

Mar 14, 2023

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2087; (P) 1.2143; (R1) 1.2240; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside at this point. Rise f…

Mar 14, 2023

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0672; (P) 1.0710; (R1) 1.0771; More… EUR/USD’s rally from 1.0523 is still in progress and intraday bias…

Mar 14, 2023

Deutsche Bank like US dollar shorts, against EUR, JPY & now CHF

<p>Deutsche Bank says on the ructions in the US financial system since Friday:</p><ul><li>We believe…

Mar 14, 2023

Australian household spending data for February -0.1% m/m (prior -6.2%)

<p>Commonwealth Bank of Australia uisng its own data. </p><p>Household spending in February 2023 +4.5% y/y…

Mar 13, 2023

Bank analysts hugely split on what to expect from the FOMC; from +50bp to -25bp forecast

<p>I posted yesterday on the early responses as they came in:</p><ul><li><a href="https://if…

Mar 13, 2023

Nomura forecast a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut, 25bp, at March meeting

<p><a href="https://ift.tt/fCpR8Jh" target="_blank" rel="follow">ICYMI - Nomura<…

Mar 13, 2023

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1924; (P) 1.2019; (R1) 1.2129; More… GBP/USD’s rally from 1.1801 is still in progress and intraday bias…

Mar 13, 2023

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.80; (P) 135.39; (R1) 136.67; More… USD/JPY’s decline from 137.90 accelerates to as low as 132.74 so f…

Mar 13, 2023

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0575; (P) 1.0638; (R1) 1.0702; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside at this point. Correc…

Mar 13, 2023

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.80; (P) 135.39; (R1) 136.67; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. S…

Mar 13, 2023

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1924; (P) 1.2019; (R1) 1.2129; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on he upside for the moment. The …

Mar 13, 2023

Gold Price Weekly Outlook: XAU/USD Fate in the Hands of US CPI?

Gold prices get their shine back but will upcoming US CPI data limit upside? XAU/USD bulls look to hold onto 1850 as support…

Mar 12, 2023

SVB collapse: What's next?

<p style="" class="text-align-justify">48 hours is all it took for Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) to be…

Mar 12, 2023

Dow Jones technical analysis at ForexLive.com: Contrarian long oppportunity for traders?

<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is one of the most widely recognized stock market indices in the world. It …

Mar 12, 2023

Chairman Jordan of the Swiss National Bank says Bank doing all it can to curb inflation

<p>SNB Chair Thomas Jordan spoke with newspaper SonntagsBlick in an interview ahead of the Bank's upcoming policy …

Mar 12, 2023

China finance minister &, PBOC Governor to both stay on, an unexpected continuity signal

<p>On Sunday China's new Premier Li Qiang nominated Yi Gang to remain governor of the People's Bank of China (…

Mar 12, 2023

Fed in talks to create a fund to backstop deposits if more banks fail - report

<p>The FDIC and Federal Reserve is mulling a fund that would allow regulators to backstop more deposits at banks that …

Mar 12, 2023

US Dollar Forecast: Inflation Data May Revive Rally but SVB Meltdown Poses Risks

The US dollar has given up all the gains induced by Powell's hawkish comments due to a slump in yields following the SVB…

Mar 11, 2023

The case for the Federal Reserve and US Treasury not to intervene in the run on the banks

<p>Here is one side of the argument:</p><p>The reality is that the Fed and Treasury have a magic bullet he…

Mar 11, 2023

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s decline last week confirms short term topping at 137.90, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial b…

Mar 11, 2023

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.0523 but rebounded strongly since then. Yet, it couldn’t take out 1.0693 resistance decisively. Ini…

Mar 11, 2023

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Despite dipping to 1.1801, GBP/USD quickly quickly rebounded after drawing support from 1.1840. Initial bias stays mildly on…

Mar 11, 2023

The Fed is now facing a real dilemma. Here's what will happen

<p>The point of hiking interest rates is to inflict economic pain. In a perfect world, it would be spread evenly and f…

Mar 11, 2023

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 10 Mar: SVB overshadows the jobs report

<ul><li><a href="https://ift.tt/SpbLzcB of a 50 bps hike on March 22 fall to 28%</a></li><…

Mar 10, 2023

US equity close: S&P 500 virtually erases the year-to-date gains

<p>US equities were hit hard today and the S&amp;P 500 virtually erased its gains for the year in the second day o…

Mar 10, 2023

WTI crude oil futures settle at $76.68

<p>The price of WTI crude futures are settling at $76.68. That's up $0.96 or +1.27%</p><p>The low toda…

Mar 10, 2023

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1857; (P) 1.1898; (R1) 1.1964; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Sust…

Mar 10, 2023

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.61; (P) 136.49; (R1) 137.04; More… USD/JPY’s break of 135.35 support indicates short term topping at …

Mar 10, 2023

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0550; (P) 1.0571; (R1) 1.0603; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. Firm break of 1.06…

Mar 10, 2023

New York Fed data shows underlying inflation pressure acceleration, not slowing

<p>This is an interesting piece from Reuters on a New York Federal Reserve report on an in-house inflation model. This…

Mar 10, 2023

One of these markets is going to be wrong about what happens tomorrow

<p>What a mess in markets today.</p><p>Normally, falling yields would be good news for risk trades and bad…

Mar 9, 2023

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0521; (P) 1.0548; (R1) 1.0570; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. …

Mar 9, 2023

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.59; (P) 137.25; (R1) 138.02; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 1…

Mar 9, 2023

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1813; (P) 1.1836; (R1) 1.1868; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neural first. Firm break of 1.191…

Mar 9, 2023

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9668 – Reuters estimate

<p>PBOC CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexl…

Mar 9, 2023

Crypto-friendly bank Silvergate is shutting down operations, liquidating bank

<p>News from late Wednesday afternoon US time a couple of hours ago. </p><p>Its been a saga this ...</p…

Mar 9, 2023

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Perk Up but Risk Appetite Remains Subdued ahead of NFP Data

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced modestly on Wednesday, but gains were capped by subdued sentiment following Powell&#…

Mar 8, 2023

Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 9 March 2023

<p>Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive tr…

Mar 8, 2023

Major US indices closing with mixed results. NASDAQ and higher.

<p>The major US indices are closing with mixed results:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average was the we…

Mar 8, 2023

USDJPY trades between 200 day MA above and 100 day MA below (and 100/200 hour MAs)

<p>As we head toward the end of day, the MA technicals for the USDJPY are painting the risk and bias defining levels f…

Mar 8, 2023

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1744; (P) 1.1905; (R1) 1.1987; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. C…

Mar 8, 2023

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0498; (P) 1.0597; (R1) 1.0647; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside as fall from 1.10…

Mar 8, 2023

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.07; (P) 136.63; (R1) 137.72; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Curren…

Mar 8, 2023

US yield curve inversion, the recession indicator, is its deepest in 40+ years

<p>Powell's return to more hawkish triggered bond marekt moves:</p><ul><li>the 2 year UST yield …

Mar 8, 2023

Crypto-focused bank Silvergate in talks with FDIC about how to keep the firm in business

<p>You'll recall the dour news for the firm that saw its stock price collapse:</p><p><a href="…

Mar 7, 2023

While the focus was on Powell Tuesday there were also remarks from the ECB and SNB

<p>A couple of posts from Tuesday ICYMI while Powell was hogging the spotlight:</p><p><a href="htt…

Mar 7, 2023

RBA Lowe says if the data suggest a pause prior to the next meeting, will do that

<p>Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://ift.tt/QTMtC…

Mar 7, 2023

BlackRock says Federal Reserve could hike rates to 6%, hold for an extended time there

<p>A note from Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset ma…

Mar 7, 2023

Oil - private survey of inventory shows headline draw vs small build expected

<p>This is from the privately surveyed oil stock data ahead of official government data tomorrow morning out of the US…

Mar 7, 2023

Why was the market so oblivious about signs that Powell would be hawkish?

<p>What's annoying about this rout in risk assets is that it didn't come as a shock.</p><p>Last we…

Mar 7, 2023

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.47; (P) 135.83; (R1) 136.29; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged.…

Mar 7, 2023

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0638; (P) 1.0667; (R1) 1.0711; More… At this point, the favored case is still that correction from 1.10…

Mar 7, 2023

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1996; (P) 1.2023; (R1) 1.2052; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. On the downs…

Mar 7, 2023

U.S. energy envoy Hochstein says Russian oil price caps are working well

<p>U.S. Energy Envoy Amos Hochstein spoke on the sidelines of an energy conference, CERAWeek, in Houston.</p><…

Mar 7, 2023

AUDUSD levels in play through rate decision

<p>The AUDUSD is trading below the 100 day /100 hour MA going into the rate decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealan…

Mar 6, 2023

Economic calendar in Asia - Tuesday, 7 March 2023 - China trade data and RBA decision

<p>There is no time listed for the Chinese trade data coming today. This data tends to hit sometime after 0200 GMT (10…

Mar 6, 2023

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.45; (P) 136.12; (R1) 136.50; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the dow…

Mar 6, 2023

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0602; (P) 1.0621; (R1) 1.0652; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. Fall from 1.…

Mar 6, 2023

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1975; (P) 1.2012; (R1) 1.2082; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. On the downs…

Mar 6, 2023

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8932 – Reuters estimate

<p>PBOC CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.</p><p>Earlier from China:</p><ul><li>…

Mar 6, 2023

Misleading app uses ForexLive brand to target traders - be on guard for your funds

<p>A heads up folks, be on alert for this latest batch of scammers:</p><ul><li>Deceptive website and…

Mar 6, 2023

ECB Lagarde on higher rates: "In the short term, core inflation is going to be high,"

<p>European Central Bank President Lagarde spoke over the weekend, with Spanish media group Vocento.</p><ul&g…

Mar 5, 2023

Mobius says China's government is preventing him from taking capital out of China

<p>Mark Mobius is an emerging markets fund manager. He founded Mobius Capital Partners.</p><p>Mobius spoke…

Mar 5, 2023

Weekend - China sets its 2023 GDP target "around 5%"

<p>Premier Li Keqiang's government work report was released on Sunday at the opening of the National People's …

Mar 5, 2023

Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, S&P 500, US Dollar, Powell, NFPs, RBA, BoC, BoJ

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 rallied as the US Dollar fell last week. Ahead, the RBA, BoC and BoJ set rates. Markets also a…

Mar 5, 2023

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