Conflicting views out of Goldman Sachs on the rate hike path ahead for the Federal Reserve
Goldman Sachs economists
- We continue to expect that today's hike will be the last of the cycle. Powell said that the FOMC will be particularly focused on the inflation data, and we expect the next few CPI reports to be soft.
- As a result, we expect that the FOMC will skip September in order to slow the pace and will then conclude in November that inflation has slowed enough to make a final hike unnecessary.
Via GS strategists, a little more circumspect, say the path ahead is still data-edeopndent:
- We think recent data is consistent with the US policy rate peaking in July, as core CPI inflation slowed sharply in June. But any renewed signs of inflation strength in key data like the Employment Cost Index released on Friday and upcoming PCE inflation releases still have potential to extend the hiking path
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Analytic Dave
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